Analysis of Differential Prediction of Law School
Performance by Racial/Ethnic Subgroups Based on
2008–2010 Entering Law School Classes (TR 12-02)
by Deborah A. Suto, Lynne L. Norton, and Lynda M. Reese
Executive Summary
In the law school admission process, it is essential that the criteria used for
admission are fair to all subgroups in the applicant population. One method used to
evaluate the fairness of the admission process is to compare the predicted and actual
first-year averages (FYAs) within individual law schools for various subgroups of the
applicant population. The current study was designed to address questions of
differential prediction of law school grades for various racial/ethnic subgroups.
The sample used in this study was drawn from the 2008, 2009, and 2010 entering
law school classes, using data that were available from the Law School Admission
Council (LSAC)-sponsored correlation studies. The study examined results for three
racial/ethnic minority subgroups and the nonminority (White) subgroup. Data were
analyzed from 178 law schools, each of which over the 3-year period enrolled 10 or
more first-year students who identified themselves as Asian American, Black, or Latino
and 10 or more first-year students who identified themselves as White.
Statistical analyses were used to predict FYAs using Law School Admission Test
(LSAT) score alone, undergraduate grade point average (UGPA) alone, and the best
predictive combination of LSAT score and UGPA. Analyses were carried out separately
for all individual law schools included in the study, resulting in three prediction equations
for each law school.
The results of the analyses indicate that FYA tended to be, on average, slightly overpredicted (i.e., predicted FYAs exceeded actual FYAs) for all three of the
racial/ethnic minority subgroups studied here, with Black law students exhibiting the
most overprediction and Asian American law students exhibiting the least
overprediction. The combination of both LSAT score and UGPA provided the least
amount of overprediction for racial/ethnic minority subgroups on the school level
compared to the use of either single predictor alone. Overall, these results do not
support the concern that LSAT score alone or the combination of LSAT score and
UGPA may contribute to unfair admission decisions for the racial/ethnic subgroups
studied here.
While considering the results of this study, the reader should keep in mind that they
refer only to subgroup behavior and not to individuals. For example, while results may
suggest that UGPAs alone may overpredict FYAs for Black law students on average,
the performance of many individual Black law students may be underpredicted based
solely on their UGPAs.
Finally, it is worth repeating that the average amount of overprediction or
underprediction of FYAs found for the four racial/ethnic subgroups studied was very
slight, regardless of the prediction equation that was used. In other words, this study
provided no evidence that LSAT score, UGPA, or the combination of those two predictor
variables unfairly predict future law school performance for any racial/ethnic subgroup.