Summary of 2021-2025 LSAT Correlation Study Results
LSAC makes every effort to evaluate and ensure the validity of the Law School Admission Test as part of the law school admission process. As predictive validity is an important component in the overall evaluation of test validity, LSAC has carried out predictive validity studies, also called LSAT Correlation Studies, since the test was first administered. The LSAT Correlation Studies evaluate the effectiveness of LSAT score, undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), and the combination of LSAT score and UGPA for predicting a student’s first-year average in law school.
This report provides summaries of the combined results for the law schools participating in the 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 LSAT Correlation Studies. Therefore, these correlation studies represent a large span of LSAT test takers from about 2016 to 2024.
Key Insights
The Best Predictor of First-Year Law School Performance: LSAT Score + UGPA
The findings in this report are consistent with all prior predictive validity reports in showing that:
- LSAT score is a better predictor of law school performance than UGPA.
- The combination of LSAT score and UGPA continues to be the best predictor of a student’s first-year average in law school.
- For the majority of schools, though not all, average LSAT score is a slightly better predictor of first-year performance than highest LSAT score.
The Ceiling Effect — Affecting UGPAs, But Not LSAT Scores
A "ceiling effect" occurs when a significant number of individuals score at the highest points — limiting the variance and limiting the ability to distinguish among high performers.
The findings in this report show that:
- Law school matriculants’ mean UGPAs have increased over the past six years while the standard deviations have decreased. Because of this, UGPAs have begun to suffer from a ceiling effect.
- Law school matriculants’ mean LSAT scores have also increased over the past five years — but the standard deviations have increased too. This means that LSAT scores have not suffered from a ceiling effect.
- Due to the ceiling effect, UGPA has become a weaker predictor of first-year law school performance, while LSAT score continues to be a strong predictor. This makes LSAT score an even more important metric for predicting first-year performance.
Notes
- In 2025, the number of law schools participating in the Correlation Study returned to pre-COVID levels.
- All test takers in this study took the LSAT before August 2024, when the test included an Analytical Reasoning section. Next year’s Correlation Study will be the first to include test takers who took the LSAT in August 2024 or later.
Additional Findings
Download the full report for additional insights and data, including in-depth summaries of findings from each year covered in this study.
For earlier data, last year’s correlation study is also available.
